The Economy in Decline

It Soon May Be Time to Help your Family and Friends
In Communism Family and Friends Come Together and Help Each Other Out as the Government Bears Down. Of Course, the Rats Turn on the People, But Who Needs Rats when Everyone Clutches a Cell Phone.
In January real wage growth, or wages adjusted for inflation, turned negative after a string of seven months where supposedly wage growth outpaced inflation.  Of course the Bureau of Labor and Statistics manipulates inflation down, so realistically, wages likely haven’t kept up at all but the situation is deteriorating.  So, when the government admits your paycheck is falling behind, it’s time to worry more:
  This is unfortunately consistent with the 4% annualized jump in inflation during the 3 months ended January.

Meanwhile, as reported by the New York Fed in their February report, and pertaining to the population of New York State (but which bodes poorly for the nation):

Delinquency & Public Records
. . . . Delinquency transition rates increased for all product types, except for student loans. Annualized, approximately 8.5% of credit card balances and 7.7% of auto loan balances transitioned into delinquency. Early delinquency transition rates for mortgages increased by 0.2 percentage point yet remain low by historic standards.

About 114,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports in 2023Q4, slightly less than in the previous quarter. Approximately 4.7% of consumers have a 3rd party collection account on their credit report.

Credits cards and auto loans act as a canary in the coal mine as struggling families tend to stop these payments before they stop a mortgage payment.  This report indicates about 8% of these loans fell into delinquency during the 4th quarter of 2023 – that’s a big number.
Next, let’s check if tax returns may give people a little extra cash to cover some payments.  According to US Treasury data as reported by Zerohedge, “[Bank of America] calculated that tax refunds are down 57% YoY in the first two weeks of tax refund season (ending Feb 9).

Well so much for the refund. 

As further indication that the healthy GDP number is false, government tax receipts plummeted 6.2% on a 12-month basis – people and businesses paid less because they earned less. Let me remind you, there were no new tax cuts applicable to 2023.

Yet yesterday the S&P 500 Stock Index closed at a very lofty 5,000 continuing a relentless rally – Things are looking great? – it seems the stock market reflects the matrix.

Let me close with some more January sentiments and data from Peter Schiff:
It is time to pray and time to vote out Biden and all the communists.
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